Darren+W’s+2018+OpEd+Article

The 5th Horseman of the Apocalypse

You either know or have heard of the biblical 4 horsemen of the apocalypse, Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death. But there is another one, one that is not mentioned, one that is worse than all of them combined, one that pervades everywhere in society. But more on that dark subject later.

First, I’ll ask you to take this quick test on your personality, just enter your birth date, your favorite color, and a few other things.

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If you felt like those described you accurately, fantastic! You have just fallen prey to the Barnum Effect, a very common psychological effect that affects a lot of people. This effect is where an individual, you, gives typically high ratings to personality descriptors that fit them well, when really, they can be applied to a wide range of people. Whether you have found interest in astrology, fortune telling, aura reading, personality tests, or even horoscopes, it all ties back into the Barnum Effect. This also works better when given to a person directly and saying it is specifically for them, try it on someone if you feel like it!

There are many other effects as well, the Baader-Meinhoff Phenomenon is when you first learn about something and then start to hear/see it everywhere you go. The Birthday-Number effect, where people tend to prefer the numbers of their date of birth over other numbers. The Audience effect, in which a person who is with others tends to perform better on old, rehearsed tasks than new, unfamiliar tasks. And the ever popular Placebo effect, with its wide ranging effects stemming from how the brain works. These are all examples of rather harmless and fun psychological effects.

But then there are some very, // very //, not so harmless and not so fun effects. Let’s start with the Confirmation Bias. This is, essentially, the tendency to search for facts that support what you already believe in or have chosen as a conclusion. This also extends outwards to gathering information in a very selective way and interpreting information very biasedly. The Confirmation Bias is present in nearly everyone ranging from economists to scientists. Not only that, but it is present in communities both physical and digital in that people tend to surround themselves with people who think the same way, creating a sort of confirmation bubble. Algorithms in social media and search engines tend to display the information most relevant to you and what you are looking for. This further deepens this bias within people and creates a deeper rooting of people to their core beliefs, the ones they cherish the most, whether they be right or wrong.

And then there’s the Backfire Effect. When someone’s core beliefs are challenged, they pick apart the data and the argument and search for weaknesses, they form more connections in their mind and when they finally finish, their core beliefs are stronger than ever. Have you ever presented solid evidence to someone who holds a strong belief, and then they immediately reject that evidence and continue to hold their own core beliefs, maybe even more strongly than before? That is the Backfire Effect in action, where even in the face of insurmountable facts and evidence against what they believe, a person will still stick to their core beliefs and have them even more deeply rooted into them. Generally, the Backfire Effect doesn’t happen when arguing with somebody, but when it does happen to strike against one of those core beliefs, it hits hard and powerfully. Ever been in an argument with somebody that just devolved as differing beliefs and facts clashed harder and harder until ad hominem attacks were thrown left and right? That’s the Backfire Effect pushing each person deeper and deeper into their original beliefs.

Take some quick examples, George Washington’s dentures weren’t really made from wood, they were made from materials such as ivory, gold, and lead. That's a fact, but it doesn't seem to strike your beliefs that hard, but what if I told you he had a separate set of dentures, not one made from gold or wood, but from the teeth of slaves ([|Source])? Maybe not as hard hitting for those of us in APUSH, but still something to think about. How about the fact that just because a food is “natural” and “organic” doesn’t make it healthy? That just because it’s been genetically modified and processed and packed doesn’t make it unhealthy? That there is a “moral obligation” to use GMOs ([|Source])? And let’s touch on nuclear power, which people hate on for absolutely no reason. Nuclear power is the safest source of energy, safer than that of even wind and solar ([|Source]). It produces almost 100% clean energy at an astounding rate, yet many people have the core belief that nuclear is bad, a belief because of weapons and nuclear disasters that happened in the past. And maybe I’ll touch on gun laws now even when they are at its most controversial. That despite the 50% increase in gun ownership since 1993, gun homicide rates have halved ([|Source]). That a 113 page study found that the assault weapons ban showed no clear indication that it reduced shooting deaths ([|Source]). Now I would like to remind the reader that I’m not completely advocating for one side or another, just showing the facts, the evidence, the truth that needs to confront those core beliefs. media type="custom" key="29612291" align="center"

These two effects, the Confirmation Bias and the Backfire Effect, are the protectors of core beliefs, even if those core beliefs are completely wrong. Confirmation Bias protects the core beliefs while finding information while the Backfire Effect defends the core beliefs against opposing facts and evidence. These effects create people such as the Anti-Vaxxers, who confirm their beliefs of vaccines with information they bend to their will and whenever facts are shown to them, they dig their heels in deeper; the Fundamental Christians that believe evolution is false and that atheists are “sent by Satan” to prove them wrong; the climate change deniers who believe that the climate isn’t changing at all, even when shown evidence and facts galore.

And all of this can be seen in one final effect – The Dunning-Kruger Effect. It says that the more you know, the less you feel like you know while the less you know, the more you feel like you know. Incompetence creates the feeling of competence, while competence creates feelings of incompetence. This means that all the idiots in the world, all the Anti-Vaxxers, the Fundamental Christians, the Climate Change Deniers and all the other, think they know as much, and even more so, than the people that are actual professionals: doctors, archaeologists, and researchers.

This is the 5th Horseman of the apocalypse, Ignorance coupled with False Knowledge. This 5th Horseman is invisible, it is never talked about, yet it is the most pervasive, its fingers and tendrils reaching into the mind of everyone. This 5th Horseman is the most dangerous of them all because even as we attempt to destroy the other Horsemen, it can revive them all again. Pestilence can reap again when people stop accepting cures, war can rise again when people stop understanding and become intolerant, famine can spread again when people stop trusting food, and death can grasp at lives again. To combat all the other Horsemen is useless without first fighting the 5th Horseman. And the way to fight that false knowledge and ignorance?

To change your core beliefs according to new facts.

To not allow emotion and faith to overtake logic and science.

To fight, not with ideologies, but with evidence.

And only then could humans ever be truly rid of the Horsemen.  You either know or have heard of the biblical 4 horsemen of the apocalypse, Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. But there is another one, one that is not mentioned, one that is worse than all of them combined, one that pervades everywhere in society.

But more on that dark subject later.

First, I’ll ask you to take this quick survey on your personality, just enter your birthdate and your favorite color.